Bear-Market Warning Dashboard

When IG spreads widen sharply it signals deteriorating corporate credit conditions that often precede equity weakness.

Chicago Fed NFCI aggregates funding, credit, and volatility; moves above zero indicate broad tightening and higher risk.

The TED spread compares interbank funding costs to Treasuries; rising levels flag funding stress and liquidity strain.

The 10y–3m Treasury curve is a classic recession lead indicator: deep, persistent inversions have preceded every downturn since the 1960s.

Initial jobless claims turn higher before the labour market weakens materially and equities price recession risk.

When leadership narrows to mega-caps the ratio rolls over, flagging fatigued breadth.

Tracks whether small caps participate; rolling over while SPY holds up signals risk appetite fading.

Cyclicals trailing staples often foreshadows weaker growth and earnings sentiment.

High-beta lagging low-vol shows investors rotating toward safety ahead of market drawdowns.

Sharp oil moves – up or down – can tighten financial conditions, squeeze consumers, and signal global growth stress.