Live Signals
Bear-Market Warning Dashboard
Monitoring volatility, trend, and credit spreads with hourly refreshes. Times shown in U.S.(Eastern).
Overall Market Health
Signals Stable
OKTop contributors: Cyclicals vs Staples (🚨 Elevated). Data unavailable for Yield Curve (10Y-3M), High-Yield OAS, VIX (Volatility Index), Investment-Grade OAS, Yield Curve (10Y - 2Y), Financial Conditions (NFCI), Jobless Claims, TED Spread, WTI Crude.
S&P 500 vs 200-Day Moving Average
Updated Mar 8, 11:11 PM
$672.38 (2.43% vs 200-DMA $656.44)
Price holding above the 200-day moving average.
Compares SPY to its 200-day average to show whether the primary equity trend is intact.
SPY versus its long-term moving averages gauges whether the market's primary uptrend is intact or rolling over.
Yield Curve (10Y - 2Y)
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
—%
Yield curve data unavailable from source.
Measures the 10y minus 2y Treasury spread—negative values signal an inverted curve.
The 10y–2y Treasury curve inverts when policy is restrictive; persistent inversions often precede recessions and bear markets.
High-Yield OAS
Updated Mar 8, 11:14 PM
—%
High-yield spread data unavailable from source.
Looks at high-yield credit spreads; widening spreads suggest stress in corporate debt.
High-yield spreads widen when funding risk builds, signalling rising default odds and pressure on equities.
VIX (Volatility Index)
Updated Mar 8, 11:14 PM
—
VIX data unavailable from source.
Volatility context with regime and momentum checks.
VIX Regime
VIX data unavailable from source.
VIX Momentum
VIX data unavailable from source.
VIX regime and short-term momentum highlight volatility warning regimes; term structure and vol-of-vol are omitted while reliable data is unavailable.
Credit & Liquidity
Investment-Grade OAS
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
Investment-grade spread data unavailable.
When IG spreads widen sharply it signals deteriorating corporate credit conditions that often precede equity weakness.
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
NFCI data unavailable.
Chicago Fed NFCI aggregates funding, credit, and volatility; moves above zero indicate broad tightening.
TED Spread
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
TED spread data unavailable.
The TED spread compares interbank funding costs to Treasuries; rising levels flag funding stress.
Macro Turning Indicators
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
10Y-3M curve data unavailable.
The 10y–3m Treasury curve is a classic recession lead indicator once it inverts for months.
Jobless Claims
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
Claims data unavailable.
Initial jobless claims turn higher before labour market stress feeds through to growth.
Breadth & Leadership
Equal-Weight vs Cap-Weight
Updated Mar 8, 11:11 PM
RSP/SPY: 0.295
Breadth stable: RSP/SPY 0.295.
Breadth proxy comparing equal-weight (RSP) to cap-weighted SPY.
When leadership narrows to mega-caps the ratio rolls over, flagging fatigued breadth.
Small vs Large Caps
Updated Mar 8, 11:11 PM
IWM/SPY: 0.373
Small-cap/risk ratio 0.373 holding up.
Risk appetite for smaller names versus the S&P 500 heavyweights.
Tracks whether small caps participate; rolling over while SPY holds up signals risk appetite fading.
Cyclicals vs Staples
Updated Mar 8, 11:11 PM
XLY/XLP: 1.334
Cyclicals lagging with 50-DMA 1.43 below 200-DMA 1.431.
Consumer cyclicals leadership relative to defensives.
Cyclicals trailing staples often foreshadows weaker growth and earnings sentiment.
High-Beta vs Low-Vol
Updated Mar 8, 11:11 PM
SPHB/SPLV: 1.555
Risk-on leadership intact (ratio 1.555).
Risk-on vs defensive factor leadership (SPHB/SPLV).
High-beta lagging low-vol shows investors rotating toward safety ahead of market drawdowns.
Cross-Asset Thermometers
WTI Crude
Updated Mar 8, 11:13 PM
n/a
Oil data unavailable.
Sharp oil moves – up or down – can tighten financial conditions and stress global growth.