Live Signals
Bear-Market Warning Dashboard
Monitoring volatility, trend, and credit spreads with hourly refreshes. Times shown in U.S.(Eastern).
Overall Market Health
Signals Stable
OKTop contributors: VIX (Volatility Index) (⚠ Caution), Equal-Weight vs Cap-Weight (🚨 Elevated), Cyclicals vs Staples (⚠ Caution).
S&P 500 vs 200-Day Moving Average
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
$688.32 (5.14% vs 200-DMA $654.69)
Price holding above the 200-day moving average.
Compares SPY to its 200-day average to show whether the primary equity trend is intact.
SPY versus its long-term moving averages gauges whether the market's primary uptrend is intact or rolling over.
Yield Curve (10Y - 2Y)
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
0.59%
Yield curve remains in a normal upward slope.
Measures the 10y minus 2y Treasury spread—negative values signal an inverted curve.
The 10y–2y Treasury curve inverts when policy is restrictive; persistent inversions often precede recessions and bear markets.
High-Yield OAS
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
3.12%
Credit spreads remain contained.
Looks at high-yield credit spreads; widening spreads suggest stress in corporate debt.
High-yield spreads widen when funding risk builds, signalling rising default odds and pressure on equities.
VIX (Volatility Index)
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
19.86
VIX Momentum: Momentum signal active 1 day(s): MA5 19.40 > MA20 19.21 and SPY < 50-DMA.
Volatility context with regime and momentum checks.
VIX Regime
VIX 19.9 within its normal regime.
VIX Momentum
Momentum signal active 1 day(s): MA5 19.40 > MA20 19.21 and SPY < 50-DMA.
VIX regime and short-term momentum highlight volatility warning regimes; term structure and vol-of-vol are omitted while reliable data is unavailable.
Credit & Liquidity
Investment-Grade OAS
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
0.86%
IG OAS 0.86% (change 14.7%).
Investment-grade corporate spread over Treasuries.
When IG spreads widen sharply it signals deteriorating corporate credit conditions that often precede equity weakness.
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
-0.56
NFCI accommodative at -0.56.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.
Chicago Fed NFCI aggregates funding, credit, and volatility; moves above zero indicate broad tightening and higher risk.
TED Spread
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
0.09%
TED spread calm at 0.09%.
LIBOR vs Treasury funding spread.
The TED spread compares interbank funding costs to Treasuries; rising levels flag funding stress and liquidity strain.
Macro Turning Indicators
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
0.30%
10Y-3M spread 0.3%.
Long vs short curve widely used for recession timing.
The 10y–3m Treasury curve is a classic recession lead indicator: deep, persistent inversions have preceded every downturn since the 1960s.
Jobless Claims (4-wk avg)
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
220,250
Claims steady (220,250 4-wk avg).
Initial unemployment claims smoothed over four weeks.
Initial jobless claims turn higher before the labour market weakens materially and equities price recession risk.
Breadth & Leadership
Equal-Weight vs Cap-Weight
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
RSP/SPY: 0.298
50-DMA 0.289 below 200-DMA 0.289.
Breadth proxy comparing equal-weight (RSP) to cap-weighted SPY.
When leadership narrows to mega-caps the ratio rolls over, flagging fatigued breadth.
Small vs Large Caps
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
IWM/SPY: 0.384
Small-cap/risk ratio 0.384 holding up.
Risk appetite for smaller names versus the S&P 500 heavyweights.
Tracks whether small caps participate; rolling over while SPY holds up signals risk appetite fading.
Cyclicals vs Staples
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
XLY/XLP: 1.297
Ratio 1.297 below 200-DMA 1.431.
Consumer cyclicals leadership relative to defensives.
Cyclicals trailing staples often foreshadows weaker growth and earnings sentiment.
High-Beta vs Low-Vol
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
SPHB/SPLV: 1.583
Risk-on leadership intact (ratio 1.583).
Risk-on vs defensive factor leadership (SPHB/SPLV).
High-beta lagging low-vol shows investors rotating toward safety ahead of market drawdowns.
Cross-Asset Thermometers
WTI Crude
Updated Mar 2, 2:55 PM
66.36
WTI steady at $66.
Oil price shocks tighten or ease financial conditions.
Sharp oil moves – up or down – can tighten financial conditions, squeeze consumers, and signal global growth stress.